Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle United Prediction, Lineups, Team News, Injury And Preview

Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle United Prediction: Newcastle United will likely draw 2-2 with Qarabag FK in the Champions League knockout phase playoff first leg on February 18, 2026, as both teams possess strong attacking capabilities but struggle defensively, with Qarabag scoring in all four home European matches this season while Newcastle have conceded goals in seven consecutive games across all competitions.

Match Overview

Detail	Information
Competition	UEFA Champions League – Knockout Phase Playoff (First Leg)
Date	Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Kick-off Time	11:15 PM IST (6:45 PM Local Time)
Venue	Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium, Baku, Azerbaijan
Referee	To be confirmed
Current Form	Qarabag: W-W-L-W-L-L / Newcastle: W-W-L-L-L-D

Key Facts

• Qarabag FK became the first Azerbaijani club to reach the Champions League knockout phase after finishing 22nd in the League Phase with 10 points from eight matches.
• Newcastle United qualified for the playoff round by securing 12th position with 14 points, marking their return to Champions League knockout football.
• Qarabag defeated Benfica 3-2 in September 2025, recording their first-ever Champions League victory in club history.
• The Horsemen scored in all four home Champions League matches this season, netting 11 goals at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium.
• Newcastle remain winless in three consecutive away Champions League fixtures, drawing twice and losing once since their 4-0 victory over Union SG.
• Anthony Gordon leads Newcastle with six Champions League goals this season, ranking fourth among all scorers in the competition.
• Qarabag hold a historical disadvantage against English clubs, with seven losses and one draw from eight European encounters.
• Both teams are making their debut at this stage of the Champions League, adding significance to Wednesday’s encounter.

Team News and Injuries

Qarabag FK Injury Report

Qarabag manager Gurban Gurbanov faces limited injury concerns heading into the first leg.

Goalkeeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev remains sidelined after missing action since mid-November due to an undisclosed injury.

Fabijan Buntic has deputized effectively in his absence and will continue between the posts.

Midfielder Kady Borges received a red card after coming on as a substitute during the weekend’s domestic fixture.

Despite the dismissal occurring just eight minutes after replacing star forward Leandro Andrade, Borges should be available for selection in some capacity against Newcastle.

The Azerbaijani champions otherwise report a clean bill of health, with key attackers Camilo Duran and Leandro Andrade both fit and ready to lead the offensive line.

Newcastle United Injury Report

Eddie Howe’s squad faces a more challenging injury situation. Bruno Guimaraes (thigh), Joelinton (groin), Tino Livramento (thigh), Fabian Schar (ankle), and Emil Krafth (knee) are all confirmed absentees for the trip to Baku.

Three additional players require late fitness assessments. Sven Botman (back), Lewis Miley (thigh), and new signing Yoane Wissa (knock) will undergo evaluation before the match. Their availability remains uncertain.

The absence of Guimaraes represents a significant blow to Newcastle’s midfield control, while Joelinton’s unavailability removes a crucial physical presence. Schar’s defensive leadership will also be missed at the back.

Key Injuries That Could Shift the Game

Bruno Guimaraes’ absence fundamentally alters Newcastle’s midfield dynamics. The Brazilian midfielder provides defensive stability, progressive passing, and tactical discipline.

Without him, Eddie Howe must rely on Sandro Tonali and Jacob Ramsey to control the tempo against Qarabag’s energetic pressing.

Joelinton’s unavailability removes Newcastle’s most versatile midfielder. His ability to transition between defensive duties and attacking support creates numerical advantages. Joe Willock will likely deputize, but lacks Joelinton’s physical dominance in duels.

For Qarabag, Mahammadaliyev’s continued absence means Buntic faces the pressure of a knockout tie. While Buntic has performed adequately, Mahammadaliyev’s experience in high-stakes matches would provide additional confidence to the defensive unit.

Predicted Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle United Lineups and Formations

Qarabag FK (4-2-3-1)

• Goalkeeper: Fabijan Buntic
• Defense: Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, Julio Romao, Elvin Cafarquliyev
• Midfield: Patrick Andrade, Marko Jankovic
• Attacking Midfield: Leandro Andrade, Abdellah Zoubir, Yassine Benzia
• Forward: Camilo Duran

Gurbanov typically deploys a 4-2-3-1 formation that emphasizes quick transitions and width.

The double pivot of Patrick Andrade and Jankovic provides defensive cover while allowing the attacking trio freedom to exploit spaces. Leandro Andrade operates as the creative fulcrum, linking midfield to attack with his technical ability and vision.

Newcastle United (4-3-3)

• Goalkeeper: Nick Pope
• Defense: Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall
• Midfield: Jacob Ramsey, Sandro Tonali, Joe Willock
• Attack: Anthony Elanga, Sandro Woltemade, Anthony Gordon

Howe will likely adopt a 4-3-3 shape to maintain midfield presence despite key absences. Tonali anchors the midfield, with Ramsey and Willock providing box-to-box energy.

Gordon remains the primary goal threat from the left, while Elanga offers pace and directness on the right. Woltemade leads the line as the central striker.

Tactical Analysis

Qarabag’s approach centers on aggressive pressing in the attacking third and rapid counter-attacks.

They commit numbers forward when in possession, particularly at home where they have scored freely. The wide players tuck inside to create overloads centrally, while the full-backs provide width. This system generated 13 goals across eight League Phase matches.

Newcastle typically employs a possession-based approach with patient build-up play.

However, their recent away struggles suggest vulnerability when pressed aggressively. The Magpies have conceded in seven consecutive matches across all competitions, indicating defensive fragility that Qarabag will target.

The tactical battle will focus on midfield control. Qarabag’s energy and pressing intensity will test Newcastle’s ability to progress the ball without Guimaraes’ composure.

If the Horsemen win the midfield battle, they can exploit spaces behind Newcastle’s high defensive line.

Also Read Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain.

Statistical Analysis and Head-to-Head

Historical Performance

Qarabag and Newcastle have never faced each other in competitive football. This represents a genuine first encounter between the clubs.

Against English opposition, Qarabag’s record reads poorly: seven defeats and one draw from eight matches. Their sole point came in a 2-2 draw against Chelsea in November 2025, when they twice came from behind at home.

Newcastle’s European away record shows two wins from 15 matches, highlighting their struggles on the road in continental competition. Their most recent away victory came against Union SG (4-0) on matchday two.

League Phase Performance Comparison

Qarabag FK: 8 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats, 13 goals scored, 21 conceded, 10 points

Newcastle United: 8 matches, 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 17 goals scored, 9 conceded, 14 points

Newcastle’s superior defensive record contrasts sharply with their recent form, where clean sheets have become rare. Qarabag’s home scoring record (11 goals in four matches) suggests they will test Newcastle’s vulnerable backline.

Key Statistics

• Qarabag scored in all four home Champions League matches this season (4-2 vs Ajax, 2-2 vs Chelsea, 2-0 vs Copenhagen, 3-2 vs Frankfurt)
• Anthony Gordon’s six goals represent 35.3% of Newcastle’s total Champions League output
• Camilo Duran and Leandro Andrade combined for seven goals, accounting for 53.8% of Qarabag’s strikes
• Newcastle failed to win in three consecutive away fixtures (2-1 loss at Marseille, 2-2 draw at Leverkusen, 1-1 draw at PSG)

Key Players to Watch

Leandro Andrade (Qarabag FK)

The Brazilian attacking midfielder serves as Qarabag’s creative engine.

Andrade’s three Champions League goals and numerous assists demonstrate his ability to unlock defenses. His movement between the lines and technical quality make him the primary threat Newcastle must neutralize.

Operating in the half-spaces, Andrade exploits gaps between defensive and midfield lines, creating shooting opportunities and through balls for Duran.

Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United)

Gordon’s six Champions League goals place him among Europe’s elite scorers this season. The English winger combines pace, directness, and clinical finishing.

His two assists add another dimension to his threat. Gordon’s ability to cut inside from the left flank onto his stronger right foot creates shooting angles that have proven decisive.

Against a Qarabag defense that has conceded 21 goals, Gordon represents Newcastle’s most potent weapon.

Camilo Duran (Qarabag FK)

The Colombian striker has scored four Champions League goals, forming a lethal partnership with Andrade.

Duran’s movement off the shoulder of defenders and finishing ability in the penalty area make him dangerous.

His physical presence allows him to hold up play and bring teammates into attacks. Newcastle’s makeshift defense without Schar will face a stern test containing Duran’s runs.

Sandro Tonali (Newcastle United)

With Guimaraes absent, Tonali assumes complete midfield responsibility. The Italian midfielder must dictate tempo, break up Qarabag’s attacks, and initiate Newcastle’s build-up play.

His tactical intelligence and passing range become even more critical in hostile territory. Tonali’s ability to shield the defense while supporting attacks will largely determine Newcastle’s control of the match.

Expert Insight: Player Impact Analysis

Leandro Andrade’s influence extends beyond statistics. His positioning between lines forces opponents into difficult decisions: step up and leave space behind, or drop off and allow him time on the ball.

Against Newcastle’s injury-depleted midfield, Andrade could find unusual freedom to orchestrate attacks. His connection with Duran has produced multiple goals through perfectly weighted through balls.

Anthony Gordon’s current form suggests he will score in Baku. His six goals came against varied opposition, demonstrating adaptability.

Gordon’s movement creates space for teammates, even when he doesn’t score. His pressing from the front also initiates Newcastle’s defensive structure, making him valuable in both phases.

Where to Watch Live

India: Sony LIV, SONY TEN 2, SONY TEN 3, SONY TEN 2 HD, SONY TEN 3 HD, JioTV, SONY TEN 4, SONY TEN 4 HD

United Kingdom: TNT Sports 1, discovery+, discovery+ App, BBC Radio 5 Live

United States: Paramount+, TUDN USA, UniMás, TUDN.com, Univision NOW, TUDN App

International: Over 100 countries have confirmed broadcast coverage through various regional sports networks and streaming platforms.

Current Standings

UEFA Champions League League Phase Final Standings (Relevant Teams)

Position	Team	Matches	Wins	Draws	Losses	GF	GA	GD	Points
12	Newcastle United	8	4	2	2	17	7	+10	14
22	Qarabag FK	8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10

Newcastle’s 12th-place finish secured direct entry to the playoff round, while Qarabag’s 22nd position also qualified them for the knockout phase playoffs. The top eight teams advanced directly to the Round of 16.

Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle United Prediction

Qarabag’s home scoring record suggests they will find the net at least once. Their 11 goals in four home matches demonstrate attacking potency that Newcastle’s fragile defense will struggle to contain.

The Horsemen’s ability to score against Chelsea, Copenhagen, and Frankfurt at home proves they can trouble quality opposition.

Newcastle’s away struggles compound their injury problems. Without Guimaraes’ midfield control and Schar’s defensive organization, the Magpies face significant challenges. However, their attacking quality through Gordon, Harvey Barnes, and Anthony Elanga provides genuine goal threat.

The match will likely produce goals at both ends. Qarabag’s aggressive approach leaves defensive gaps that Newcastle’s pace can exploit. Conversely, the Horsemen’s home confidence and Newcastle’s defensive issues suggest the hosts will score.

Predicted Score: Qarabag FK 2-2 Newcastle United

This result would represent a positive outcome for Newcastle, securing away goals while avoiding defeat.

Qarabag would view a draw as maintaining their knockout hopes ahead of the challenging second leg at St James’ Park. Both teams possess sufficient attacking quality to score multiple goals, while defensive vulnerabilities on both sides suggest clean sheets remain unlikely.

The draw would set up a decisive second leg in Newcastle, where the Magpies’ home form and potential return of injured players could prove decisive in reaching the Round of 16.

FAQs